a formação dos gabinetes ministeriais

[Fernando Henrique Cardoso 

ao lado do ministro da Aeronáutica

Lélio Lobo (à esq.)

IstoÉ]

Federalismo e coalizão: a representatividade dos estados nos gabinetes ministeriais brasileiros

Resumo

Estudos sobre coalizões estão focados exclusivamente no aspecto partidário das alianças políticas do presidente. O artigo analisa a presença proporcional dos estados nos gabinetes ministeriais formados nos governos de Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva   e Dilma Rousseff. A partir do local de origem política de 265 ministros, desenvolvemos um índice para mensurar a taxa de coalescência federativa dos gabinetes. Esse índice estima a proporcionalidade da representação estadual das equipes ministeriais ano a ano nesses governos. Mais do que a sobrerrepresentação de alguns estados em relação ao peso efetivo de suas bancadas no Congresso Nacional, nossos resultados permitem comparar os valores da coalescência federativa com a coalescência partidária ao longo do tempo. O índice mostra que o presidente da República procura privilegiar certas facções estaduais dentro dos partidos da base aliada, expressando assim uma nova dimensão do presidencialismo de coalizão.

Palavras-chave: ministros; presidencialismo de coalizão; federalismo; formação de gabinetes; partidos políticos

Federalism and Coalition: State-level Representativeness in Brazilian Ministerial Portfolios

Abstract

While existing studies on coalitions primarily focus on the party-level dynamics of a president’s political alliances, this article examines the proportional representation of states within ministerial portfolios during the presidencies of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula da Silva , and Dilma Rousseff. Drawing upon the political origins of 265 ministers, we have developed an index to gauge the extent of state-level coalescence of the ministerial portfolios. This index allows us to assess the year-by-year proportionality of state-level representativeness within ministerial teams. Going beyond merely identifying overrepresentation of certain states relative to their congressional influence, our results enable a comparative analysis of federative coalescence vis-à-vis party coalescence over time. Our findings signal a trend wherein the President of the Republic tends to favor specific state factions within allied parties, shedding light on a previously unexplored dimension of coalition presidentialism.

Keywords: ministers; coalition presidentialism; federalism; ministerial portfolio formation; political parties

Como citar:

Franz Júnior, Paulo; Codato, Adriano; Fernandez, Virginia. Federalismo e coalizão: a representatividade dos estados nos gabinetes ministeriais brasileiros. Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais, 2025

Disponível em:

SciELO [html]

Research Gate [PDF]

Academia.edu  [PDF]

when context matters: analysis of the ministerial turnover in Argentina and Brazil after redemocratization

[bandeiras de 

Brasil (esq.) e Argentina (dir.)] 

artigo

This article tests two hypotheses concerning ministerial survival in two types of presidential regimes, namely coalition presidentialism (Brazil) and single party presidentialism (Argentina). 

First, it is assumed that ministers in Brazil would present a shorter life span in their positions than in Argentina, due to the need to accommodate party coalition demands. 

Subsequently, it is suggested that the reasons for ministers leaving their positions would be different precisely because the appointment logics of both presidential regimes are distinct. 

The first hypothesis is assessed by applying Kaplan-Meier survival tests. 

The second hypothesis is analyzed by identifying the reasons ministers left their positions, using primary sources. 

The literature emphasizes that institutional arrangements affect minister permanence lengths in their positions and the reasons by which they are dismissed, although we conclude that only the inclusion of the political and economic contexts of each presidential period aid towards a full understanding of ministerial survival dynamics in each country.

Keywords:  Ministerial recruitment; Ministerial dismissal; Kaplan-Meier method; Coalition presidentialism; One-party presidentialism

como citar:

Perissinotto, R., Codato, A., & Gené, M.. (2020). Quando o contexto importa. Análise do turnover ministerial na Argentina e no Brasil após a redemocratização. Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais, 35(104), e3510412. https://doi.org/10.1590/3510412/2020

download:

Rev. bras. Ci. Soc. 

Research Gate

Academia.edu 

[pdf]

.